Reserve control · ReturnSplit

Illustrative Creo Market data

Zero-shot aggregate refund forecast. It is not calibrated on ReturnSplit production outcomes and cannot authorize or change any claim decision.

Available reserve₹4,00,000.00Creo Market demo scenario default

Open commitment₹1,677.983 priced claims · after dependable reversals

14-day stress requirement₹3,28,397.52Open commitment + daily upper estimates

Reserve headroom+₹71,602.48Against ₹4,00,000 available reserve

Daily approved-refund exposure

Synthetic history with forecast range; uncertainty widens with horizon.

View all plotted values

Fourteen days of refund history followed by the selected forecast horizon
Date	Series	Lower estimate (P10)	P50	Upper estimate (P90)
21 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹23,790	-
22 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹28,260	-
23 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹26,660	-
24 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹17,240	-
25 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹19,860	-
26 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹19,470	-
27 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹19,340	-
28 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹23,020	-
29 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹30,120	-
30 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹25,690	-
31 Aug	Synthetic history	-	₹18,340	-
1 Sept	Synthetic history	-	₹18,270	-
2 Sept	Synthetic history	-	₹20,690	-
3 Sept	Synthetic history	-	₹20,900	-
4 Sept	Forecast	₹22,224	₹23,063	₹24,060
5 Sept	Forecast	₹28,037	₹28,972	₹29,857
6 Sept	Forecast	₹26,048	₹26,954	₹27,798
7 Sept	Forecast	₹17,681	₹18,350	₹19,245
8 Sept	Forecast	₹18,072	₹18,695	₹19,436
9 Sept	Forecast	₹18,722	₹19,417	₹20,048
10 Sept	Forecast	₹21,211	₹21,878	₹22,555
11 Sept	Forecast	₹22,480	₹23,285	₹24,153
12 Sept	Forecast	₹28,405	₹29,398	₹30,301
13 Sept	Forecast	₹24,949	₹25,962	₹26,887
14 Sept	Forecast	₹18,315	₹19,217	₹20,245
15 Sept	Forecast	₹18,166	₹19,074	₹19,911
16 Sept	Forecast	₹18,782	₹19,673	₹20,420
17 Sept	Forecast	₹20,041	₹20,864	₹21,802

Google TimesFM 2.5 200M · zero-shotHistory through 3 Sept · refreshed 5 Sept 2026, 3:58 am

Planning boundary

Forecasts only aggregate refund cash demand

Current open claims are added once, outside the forecast

Lower, middle, and upper model estimates remain visible

Per-claim money still comes from the paise engine

Forecasts cannot approve or reprioritize a refund

The demo forecast represents new refund authorizations after the history cutoff. The separate open commitment contains only today’s unresolved queue, so it is not counted twice.

Reserve coverage

Available reserve against the open queue and 14-day stress plan.

14-day coverage

122%Covered

Target 100%

₹71,602 headroom after the open queue and 14-day stress plan.

Reserve decision

Current queue plus forecasted new refund demand.

Reserve covered

₹71,602 remains after the open queue and 14-day stress plan.

Priced customer refunds

₹5,526 across 3 open claims.

Expected seller reversals

₹3,848 is deducted only where reversal is currently executable.

Blocked exposure

₹999 is reserved in full because recovery is not dependable yet.

Unpriced claims

2 claims still require review and are not included in the amount above.

Review open claims